Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Raised to Over 90% by Bloomberg Analysts, Drop on Polymarket

Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Raised to Over 90% by Bloomberg Analysts, Drop on Polymarket

Odds at over 90% ahead of the Securities and Exchange Commission decision for the approval of the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust suggest that the cryptocurrency is headed for mainstream acceptance.

Two influential analysts have tipped the cryptocurrency for mainstream acceptance, with odds at over 90% ahead of the Securities and Exchange Commission decision.

The odds of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in the U.S. have risen to more than 90%, two influential analysts at Bloomberg said. However, crypto market participants at betting platform Polymarket have become more pessimistic, trimming the odds to 85%.

Referring to the likelihood of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejecting proposals after Friday’s flurry of updated filings, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in a Saturday post:

“The SEC is likely to reject most of these proposals, but I’m not counting them out just yet.” He previously tipped the odds at 90% in November, saying that updated forms at the time indicated providers were moving in the right direction.

Crypto market participants, however, are not as confident that the approval will be granted before Jan. 15.

Participants have cumulatively wagered about $500,000 on the approval being delayed, or even denied, lowering the odds from last week’s 90%.

The crypto market eagerly awaits key decisions by the SEC this week, which are expected to result in the first spot bitcoin ETFs being offered to professional investors in the country.

A regulated offering is expected to attract billions of dollars in bitcoin demand, making it one of the most-watched catalysts in the asset’s history.

More than a dozen applicants hope to launch the first spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.On Friday, the race to launch the first bitcoin ETF intensified as several amended filings were submitted to the SEC.

These filings, from BlackRock, Grayscale, Fidelity and other issuers, addressed feedback from the SEC that was received last month.

Bloomberg analysts are increasingly optimistic about the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. The odds of approval are now estimated to be more than 90%.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the likelihood of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejecting proposals following a flurry of updated filings.Balchunas stated that he would assign a high chance of rejection, leaving no possibility open for such outcomes.

Back in November, he had estimated the odds at 90%, citing positive signs from the updated forms submitted by ETF providers at the time.Now, after further reflection, he believes the odds are more like 50-50.

After further reflection, he believes the odds are more like 50-50. He’s not ruling out the possibility of a positive outcome, but he’s not as confident as he was before.

On the other hand, while some users are optimistic about the approval timeline, others on Polymarket, a platform where users can place bets on various outcomes, are displaying a less optimistic view.

The betting market on Polymarket suggests that the odds of approval before January 15 have decreased, with participants wagering around $500,000 on the approval being delayed or even denied.

This could be due to the recent comments by several senators that they will not vote for the bill in its current form.

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